Excerpting Adam Rasgon and Aaron Boxerman in “As Biden’s Term Ends, Gaza Truce Efforts Proceed Cautiously” (NYT):
Talks between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza and free the remaining hostages have appeared to make little headway, according to officials familiar with the discussions, as the clock runs down on the Biden administration’s remaining days to reach an agreement on a cease-fire.
But it was far from clear whether Israel and Hamas were ready to move ahead in the coming days. Numerous rounds of negotiations have seen hopes rise only to be dashed amid gaps in the two sides’ demands.
Hamas has said it would not release any more hostages unless Israel agreed to end the war, completely withdraw its forces and release scores of Palestinians in Israeli jails.
Hamas was still demanding an end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal, although it was willing to be flexible about the timetable for both, Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, told the Al Jazeera broadcaster in late December.
For its part, Israel is frustrated that Hamas has not handed over a list of the living hostages whom it is holding in Gaza, according to an Israeli official and another official familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.
Hamas should not expect a ceasefire without (1) surrendering to Israel; and (2) releasing ALL the hostages.
If Israel entertains an entirely one-sided ceasefire against Hamas before Hamas is completely destroyed, then Hamas will remain in power in Gaza - holding both the Israelis and the Gazans hostage.
Israel will probably never get a better opportunity to remove Hamas from power.
It makes perfect sense to me for the Israeli government to hold out: Netanyahu has Hamas on the ropes, and he doesn’t see any reason (and nor would I) to lose long-term security and peace (i.e. total defeat) at the negotiating table.
Other reasons include:
- Hamas could stop the war by releasing the hostages - Hamas doesn’t know where the hostages are in Gaza; hence Hamas still hasn’t sent a list of living or dead hostages to be freed in 1st phase. If they can’t account for the hostages, then there is no deal to be had. Simple as.
- Peace is only possible if Hamas are removed from authority completely - not just stripped off military assets. If Hamas remain the de jure authority; then the hostages won’t be released. And then, Israel remaining on a constant high-alert and ever prepared for any and all potential threats, planning, or attempts similar to Oct-7. From an Israeli point of view, a high stance of aggression is necessary for its long-term safety.
- Hamas have not rescinded their demand for the elimination of the state of Israel.
- Other Arab states don’t want to get involved in some peacekeeping arrangement - so, who will bring soldiers to the ground, via this option?
- The Philadelphi corridor - Apparently, Hamas have been insisting on a complete withdrawal by the IDF from the Philadelphi corridor. No way. The taking of that corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border was how Israel starved Hamas of military weapons being smuggled into Gaza. Why would Israel agree to an entirely unreasonable demand compromising its security?