Iran has a new Supreme Leader.
10 days into this conflict, and the sheer speed and destructive power of the US military campaign has been impressive. The US & Israel have destroyed about 80% of Iran’s missile launchers, and its daily ballistic missile and drone launch rates have collapsed by approx. 90% since the first day of the war.
I think Trump's decision to go to war remains the right one. More detail for another time. The problem is that (probably because the President decided to bypass Congress), he may be looking for a premature exit strategy. See Connor Stringer writing in “Ayatollah’s son is leading contender to be Iran’s next supreme leader” :
Donald Trump said on Tuesday that “someone from within” the Iranian regime might be the best choice to take power once the US-Israel military campaign is completed. The US president, who four days ago had called on Iranians to “take over your government” once the bombardment ended, appeared to drift further from the idea that the war presented an opportunity to end theocratic rule. He told reporters in the Oval Office: “Most of the people we had in mind are dead. Now we have another group, they may be dead also, based on reports. So you have a third wave coming. Pretty soon, we’re not going to know anybody.”
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran’s last shah, is positioning himself for a return to power should Iran’s Shiite theocracy fall. Asked about Mr Pahlavi, Mr Trump said: “It would seem to me that somebody from within maybe would be more appropriate.” He added that it may make sense for “somebody that’s there, that’s currently popular, if there is such a person” to emerge from the power vacuum.
Regime change should remain the case for war, and it should be articulated to the American people.
As it stands, the IRGC, the army and the regime itself are still functioning. If the Americans fold up their tents and leave, they will emerge from their bolt holes, there will be an immense slaughter of perceived opponents. Iran will definitely re-start producing weapons and manufacturing weapons-grade uranium again, the dark cloud of Islamism will fall once more and the regime will calcify to embitter people’s lives for many years to come.
I don't expect admiral Dönitz, I mean Mojtabā Khāmenei, to be in power (or among the living) very long. If Israel is serious about overthrowing the regime, which I believe it is, then it can't allow that regime's internal process of succession to function.
ReplyDeleteTrump is rambling all over the place and losing track of what he's doing, as usual. It's no longer disputable that he's suffering from severe dementia, at least intermittently -- his social media posts and increasingly incoherent public statements make that clear. His ability to stay the course on this is going to depend on people reminding him.
Israel is largely running the show here, which is for the best. The Israelis understand the region and understand Iran (they can't afford not to), and whatever one thinks of Netanyahu, he does get things done and he knows how to stick with a plan.
As you say, if the regime is not toppled, all of this military effort will end up being wasted because the regime will just rebuild whatever capabilities have been destroyed, and re-impose the same old repression on the Iranian people. Trump may not understand that, but Netanyahu does.
So much for the peaceful Religion, but you can't blame all of them. The 'thing' backflips in what he says and does sometimes. Guess he won't give up till he's got his way.
ReplyDeleteRight decision or not, T never does things in the right way. It’s already a mess.
ReplyDeleteMany supporters would argue that if the goal is lasting stability, the pressure from the U.S. and Israel must continue until the regime’s capacity for repression and weapons development is decisively dismantled
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