According to Jack Maidment, writing in “British troops would fight back against Russia if attacked in Ukraine” (Telegraph, 15 Aug):
The Cabinet minister said: “It means that we, as the Prime Minister has said, in the circumstances of a ceasefire we are ready to put UK boots on the ground in Ukraine.
“That is, in part, to reassure Ukrainians but it is also in part to secure the safe skies, safe seas and to build the strength of the Ukrainian forces.
“Because in the end the best, the strongest deterrent against Russia re-invading or regrouping and relaunching their aggression against Ukraine is the strength of Ukraine to stand for itself, to defeat and deter and to defend itself.”
Mr Healey was asked directly if British troops in Ukraine would stand and fight or leave if they were attacked by Russia.
He replied: “Those are hypotheticals I am really not going to discuss and can’t discuss at this point. But there are a couple of important principles.
“First of all, that any British forces have the right to defend themselves, if attacked.”
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The UK Defence Secretary was reported as saying “in the circumstances of a ceasefire we are ready to put UK boots on the ground in Ukraine”.
Let’s consider the implications of his announcement:
- If Russia accepts a ceasefire deal, then UK military forces may appear in Ukraine.
- Kiev may thus become more confident in itself; and, as a result, bellicose. From the Russian perspective (regardless of whether you agree or not) if the Kiev regime started shelling children again or sent ultra-nationalist militias into Donbas; a response by Russia may seriously risk WW3.
- If the conflict restarts (for whatever reason), Russia then face the risk of an invocation of NATO (under a breach of article 5 by hostility against UK armed forces situated in Ukraine).
- Russia therefore would be sensible to reject a ceasefire.
Mr Healey must understand this perfectly well.
By offering what appears as an advantage, our Cabinet must know full well that they’re sealing the fate of the Kiev regime while grandstanding by pretending to assist them.
Have I missed something?
Hey I just read your post and it's so thought-provoking. What a complicated situation. I really like how you broke down the different perspectives and potential outcomes. It makes you really think about the bigger picture and all the risks involved. It's a heavy topic but you explained it so clearly. I'm wondering what you think the most likely outcome is if a ceasefire were to happen?
ReplyDeleteWhat’s framed as support could, in practice, make a ceasefire less likely by raising the stakes for all sides
ReplyDelete