Israel has effectively won the war as it relates to the nation’s security. The objectives are:
- Secure Israel’s borders - Israel’s borders are now secure.
- Prevent Oct-7 from happening again - Hamas don’t have strategic capability to exert force beyond the borders of Gaza. Mohammed Deif is dead. Hanniyah is dead. Sinwar is dead. Sinwar’s brother is dead.
- Defeat and/or dismantle Hamas - Leadership wiped-out, Iranian regime deterred, infrastructure & finances seriously hampered.
- Return the hostages - Most of the hostages that can be returned are back.
After the death of Sinwar, Israel effectively won this war. But it cannot really declare victory with the hostages remaining in terrorist hands. Thus, the only thorn, it seems to me, is whether you really believe Hamas will be prepared to return the 20 remaining hostages.
Should Israel continue to use force to secure the hostages, or can they be negotiated for? Afterall, what further military objectives can be reasonably yielded at this point by the IDF?
Since the outset of war, I have thought that military force was the only real means for the security of the hostages. But, there has been a shift among the Arab adjoining nations. Some part of me wonders whether this might make Hamas surrender the hostages? As the Times of Israel has reported:
Arab and Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey, signed a declaration Tuesday condemning for the first time Hamas’s onslaught of October 7, 2023, and calling on the Palestinian terror group to release all the hostages it is holding, disarm and end its rule of Gaza, in a bid to end the devastating war in the Strip ...
The ToI has also uploaded a copy of a UN-document in which the nations are calling for (1) the removal of Hamas from Gaza and (2) revive the two-state process with Israel.
The whole document is mostly a joke (as I point out below). In fact, I think it was designed to make Israel reject it.
Should Israel respond stating her needs in clear actionable language? I think perhaps - thought only barely. We are approaching the end and Israel needs US and Arab support. (I don’t think UN is any use to Israel).
From what’s worth, I think the two-state solution is a long way off though. We’ve all seen the videos of Oct-7 when the hostages were kidnapped and dragged back into Gaza. There were cheering hordes of civilians who took turns desecrating dead bodies and spitting on and harassing (to put it mildly) the living ones. Moreover, we shouldn’t forget that everyday guards and civilians followed up the wave of Hamas fighters on October-7 to commit further atrocities in Israel itself. Then we have institutions, like the UNRWA education system, which has raised Gazan children for decades to loathe the Yahud.
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The declaration’s points about the 2 state-solution
- The false moral equivalence of Hamas and Israel - The declaration (para 4) actually says “we condemn the attacks committed by Hamas against civilians on the 7th of October” followed by “we also condemn the attacks by Israel against civilians in Gaza” ... almost in the same breath! It’s like comparing a serial killer with a doctor killing the fetus to save the mother’s life. Only a maniac would compare the two. There is a world of difference between Hamas’ evil use of civilians as human shields and hostages to Israel’s rules of engagement apropos minimising civilian death consequent to targeted strikes against differing levels of commanders. What a joke.
- The contingent release of Hamas’ hostages - Para 8 actually calls upon Hamas to release all hostages but, strangely, “in the context” of stopping the war in Gaza. That makes the release of hostages part of the 2SS, and thus contingent on Israel to “exchange of Palestinian prisoners” (even, presumably, if they’ve committed serious crimes). We’re not doing that rubbish again. We’ve learnt our lessons.
- Gaza and the Westbank unified under one regime - is unobjectionable in theory. But how to do this? Are they going to form a landbridge over the two completely unrelated pieces of land.
- Israel to hand over East Jerusalem - Nope. Not going to happen. East Jerusalem was never part of Palestinian territories, under the original UN plans. Jordan annexed it illegally from 1948 to 1967, and ethnically cleansed Jews from the area. In 1967, Israel immediately took it back. Israel has a much stronger claim to East Jerusalem than Palestine.
- Hamas must end its rule and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority - OK. Fine. But no mention to what happens to remaining Hamas operatives.
- Calling for the return of UNRWA - No way. They have been caught teaching violent ideology to the children of Gaza, providing books with virulent antisemitism. A few UNRWA workers even participated in Oct-7 attacks. Another joke.
- Calling on Abbas to lead the new Palestine - No acknowledgment of him as a corrupt dictator of 20 years.
- Calling for “Right of Return” (by endorsing UNAR 194) - Total non-starter. This will be the destruction of Israel. There is no “Right of Return”. There will never be a “Return” for the sons of the sons of the people who declared war on old Israel and then fled after their attempted genocide failed. No country will ever dictate to Israel its sovereignty and security through its immigration policies.
While the hostages are important, the crucial purpose of the war in Gaza is to inflict enough damage on Hamas to ensure that it can never again pose a threat. I'm inclined to defer to the judgment of the Israeli government on whether this has already been accomplished or not. It's their constituents who have the most to lose if they get it wrong.
ReplyDeleteThat "declaration" is completely fatuous and soon to be added to the mountainous trash heap of similar pronouncements over the years. I don't know why these regimes continue to bother issuing them. Maybe they get some brownie points with their subjects.
The UN is completely irrelevant. If Trump pulls the US out of it and leaves it to finally collapse, that will be one positive thing I can credit him for.