France’s virtue signaling on Palestinian statehood

French President Macron said yesterday that his nation will recognize an independent state of Palestine in September at the UN. According to President Macron (X):

Consistent with its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognize the State of Palestine. I will make this solemn announcement before the United Nations General Assembly this coming September. 

The urgent priority today is to end the war in Gaza and to bring relief to the civilian population. Peace is possible. We need an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and massive humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza. We must also ensure the demilitarization of Hamas, secure and rebuild Gaza. And finally, we must build the State of Palestine, guarantee its viability, and ensure that by accepting its demilitarization and fully recognizing Israel, it contributes to the security of all in the region. There is no alternative. 

In light of the commitments made to me by the President of the Palestinian Authority, I have written to him to express my determination to move forward.

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France’s position means absolutely nothing, for five reasons.

◉ Firstly, the acceptance of the French President’s conditions (which I’ve highlighted in blue) were made by the PA leader Mahmoud Abbas. Mahmoud Abbas is an election-cancelling dictator of the Westbank. He doesn’t have the hostages and he doesn’t control that part of Palestine. And yet, he has apparently pledged to release the hostages. People have forgotten the kind of violence committed by Hamas against other Palestinians, especially members of Fatah. Even if Abbas were installed to run the strip, can he really control Hamas & Islamic Jihad and have them release the hostages? What a joke. Hamas probably loathe him as much as Israel - esp. given the barbaric horrors inflicted by Hamas to his political party members when they took control of the strip in 2007. It’s also v. unclear whether Fatah can command sufficient public support in the Westbank itself, let alone in Gaza. To a considerable proportion of his voter base, his increasingly aggressive rhetoric just isn’t extreme enough.

◉ Secondly, how does the French President propose kicking Hamas out of Gaza? Is he going to send troops to install Abbas instead? Hamas will never demilitarise, and they will never - ever - recognise the state of Israel. So how do we get there?

◉ Thirdly, Israel would be completely willing to recognise a Palestinian state under the conditions Macron listed. The problem here isn’t Israel. Macron is trying to effect a two-state solution from on high without addressing what the Palestinians think about these topics? Polling has consistently showed that the Palestinians (even more so in the Westbank) support what Hamas did on Oct-7. Additionally, people polled have overwhelming stood against “disarmament of Hamas in the Gaza Strip in order to stop the war on the Gaza Strip”. How many times have they rejected a two-state solution because they want Israel gone. Nothing will really change until the surrounding Arab nation states acknowledge the right of Israel to exist. This declaration by the French President cannot undo the brainwashing of children to hate Jews, or religious delusions about “armed struggle”. There just isn’t the political will for a two-state resolution - neither at Camp David nor today.

◉ Fourthly, the recognition of a State of Palestine following the events of Oct-7 only reinforce the terrorist factions, and not the people advocating for peace. Sinwar would be smiling in his grave. If you’re a moderate Palestinian, you’re now more likely to support Hamas over the PA. They get you the statehood results you want.

◉ Fifthly, France is not a player in the Middle East. This needs to managed by the the US and neighbouring Arab states.